Conflicting Signals from Energy and Climate
September 1, 2008
Ever heard that climate change is the no 1 issue for humanity? Since oil prices have fallen by 20 percent from their record level of $147/b and Russia has invaded Georgia, humanity seems to have forgotten the looming climate catastrophe. And with gasoline prices down to more acceptable levels everyone seems to have adapted to paying more at the filling station.
2050 is so far away! The 2008 summer has not haunted us with unusual heat, but for the 45 centigrade in the Gulf and parts of India. We have, of course, seen the dramatically shrinking Antarctic ice, but only on the TV screen. And why should this matter for us? Is it not good for maritime transport, halving the distance from Shanghai to Hamburg!
The international climate talks for the Kyoto successor agreement are in summer recess. So is the EU with putting its ambitious climate resolve of the spring 2007into solid legal texts.
But apart from this we observe overwhelmingly positive signals.
- The automobile industry is undergoing a profound technological revolution. Thrifty cars are in, wasteful combustion engines are out. The electric engine will come, however slowly. Hybrid engines advance; so do diesel engines with consumption levels around 4 l/ 100 km. The results of these changes will be visible in the next 5-10 years, when the high fuel efficiency models will replace the existing stock of automobiles.
- Airlines undertake desperate efforts to minimise their kerosene consumption. Many had to exit the market; big airlines find it easier to cushion the high kerosene costs by buying fuel efficient planes and merging into bigger units.
- The power sector, anticipating more expensive fossil fuel, turns to alternative fuels. Nuclear power is in, never mind the cost-overruns that companies face with the newest generations of reactors. Wind turbine makers continue to benefit from rising demand, with Chinese companies massively entering the market. Off-shore wind power has been ushered in a few days ago in the North Sea, in depths up to 40 m; innovative companies even experiment with floating turbines able to generate power without being anchored in the ground.
- Europe is finally rediscovering solar power, with the first plants to be connected to the grid in Spain, 25 years after the inauguration of the basic technology in California. And the major supplier, a German glass manufacturer, of the mirrors is about to launch a € 500 million OPA, thus demonstrating its optimism in the future of solar thermal power plants in the Mediterranean region and the Sahara.
- The second biggest German utility (RWE) has launched the first major fossil power station (400 MW) with carbon capture& storage technology, though this requires five times the investment of normal fossil power plants (€ 4400/MW)!
- The Italian government has decided to go nuclear, following the example given by Finland.
- Last not least, Barak Obama has formally announced his intention to wean the USA from its dependence on Middle East Oil by 2020, a mission impossible, unless the new US government will take draconian action to foster energy efficiency and boost the use of non-fossil fuels.
Four conclusions are to be drawn from this overview.
- First, business anticipates fossil energy to become scarcer and more expensive in the future and is therefore prepared to take risks investing in new technologies.
- Second, it is time for policy makers to shape the legislative frameworks giving all citizens on earth the incentives to save energy and replace fossil energy by alternatives, from wind to geothermal, solar and even nuclear.
- Third, the EU needs to be bold and accelerate its climate package aimed at reducing C02 emissions by 20 percent before 2020. The international community is waiting for such a signal!
- Fourth, the EU needs to look beyond 2020! It should courageously aim for its power plants to reach zero C02 emissions by around 2040: that is feasible technically and economically by harnessing wind and solar power! But it needs politicians able to combine vision with technological competence! Hopefully Barack Obama might teach us lessons!
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Barak Obama, Climate change, Energy, Finland, Hamburg, Kyoto, Shanghai |
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After reading the above article I wonder what you think of the following statements:
“As we speak, cars in Boston and factories in Beijing are melting the ice caps in the Arctic”
–Barack Obama, Berlin, July 24, 2008
“New data from the Norwegian Meteorological Institute shows that there is more ice than
normal in the Arctic waters north of the Svalbard archipelago. In most years, there are open waters
in the area north of the archipelago in the month of July. Studies from this year however show that the area is covered by ice, the Meteorological Institute writes in a press release.”
–Barents Observer (Kirkenes, Norway), July 24, 2008.